Here’s Who Will Win The Election Battleground States Based On The Votes So Far

Flickr / DonkeyHotey
Flickr / DonkeyHotey

In case you want to stay in suspense, spoiler alert to possible election results!

Something kinda cool is going on this election. Slate magazine has partnered with VoteCastr to present real-time projections of the Presidential race before a single polling location has even closed. VoteCastr uses demographic data from people who voted to predict how the race is running.

Again, VoteCastr is not counting any actual votes. Nobody knows who you voted for yet. But because of statistics and models, they can predict who you voted for — and who other people voted for. Their model could be spot on, or it could be totally wrong! If you don’t like what they are predicting, go out and vote yourself to change it!

Based on early vote numbers AND the votes cast up to this point, here are their battleground state predictions:

Ohio

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

Going into Election Day, some polls have the state VERY close, while other polls have Donald Trump ahead. VoteCastr’s models has Clinton slightly ahead based on voters cast so far, but super close.

Florida

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

The polls are all over the place in Florida, but they are all close. The model has Clinton ahead by a few, however, outperforming President Obama’s performance in 2012. If this comes to pass, it’s very bad news for Donald Trump.

Iowa

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

Traditional polls had Trump up in Iowa by quite a but — perhaps as much as 7 points. As of the current VoteCastr projection, however, he is only up 1. However, this map spells bad news for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama won a huge swath of eastern counties in both 2008 and 2012, she is only winning some of those.

Nevada

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

Polls had Donald Trump up a little bit in Nevada, but early voting seemed strong for Hillary Clinton. The current projection seems to have her up a bit, but she is underperforming Barack Obama in Reno, even as she does very well in Las Vegas.

New Hampshire

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

Because New Hampshire doesn’t have early voting, the data here is very limited. New Hampshire looks like a very close race (as polling has suggested) but Hillary Clinton appears to have the edge.

Wisconsin

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

Was this ever actually a swing state? I guess we’ll find out when the vote is counted, but Hillary Clinton seems to have a good edge in Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania

Slate with VoteCastr
Slate with VoteCastr

This state seemed to be in the bag for Hillary Clinton, but after revelations that the FBI were looking into some additional emails connected to her, the gap narrowed considerably. She still appears to be the favorite based on VoteCastr, but she is notably underperforming Obama’s performance in Philadelphia. TC mark

VoteCastr will be changing these projections as they get more data about who has voted. Check them out on Slate!

Jacob Geers

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