Who’s Most Likely To Win ‘Survivor 47’? Here’s Our Mid-Season Ranking

After 24 years of Survivor, Season 47 is shaping up to be one of the most surprising and strategic seasons to date.

Every player is playing their own game of chess, figuring out how to corral the other contestants to make moves with them in a way that will make them the Sole Survivor. As the New Era of Survivor continues to develop, the game is evolving beyond simple alliances or even voting blocks. Tribal lines are nearly impossible to draw and yet, certain players are standing out as potential Survivor 47 winners.

Every Survivor fan makes their own winner ranking based on the perceived threats and behind-the-scenes strategists currently in the game. With just a month before we find out who the winner will be, we have our own idea of who will think will take the cake (the cake being the $1 million prize). So here is our definitive winner ranking of the remaining Survivor 47 contestants.

Least Likely to Win: Kyle Ostwald

Off the bat, Kyle reminded us all of the winner of Survivor: Tocantins, J.T. Thomas, with his farm boy vibes and all-around likability. However, while the rest of the contestants see Kyle as a challenge threat, no one has spoken about him as a strategic threat. Even if he does make it to the Final Three (which is unlikely if he loses another immunity challenge), a more strategic player will likely win in that situation. In addition, Rome Cooney, who was voted out in Episode 6, revealed during his Rob Has a Podcast exit interview that Kyle said some shady, unaired things on the beach, putting his character in question. This makes it even less likely the jury would reward him $1 million if put in that position.

8th: Teeny Chirichillo

As much as everyone seems to love and get along with Teeny from folks watching at home to the contestants on the island, Teeny’s perspective has rarely been shown even with her big personality. Of course, host Jeff Probst always says that “edgic” isn’t real. (“Edgic” is a term hardcore Survivor fans use to describe an analysis of Survivor through the edit.) But typical Survivor winners also have more of a say in the game — week after week, Teeny has been looped into the votes, but her opinion seems to be ignored. Now that her closest ally, Sol, is gone, Teeny is going to have an uphill battle to get to the end as a perceived winner.

7th: Gabe Ortis

While Gabe may seem to be the biggest threat to win, his overt strategic gameplay is obvious to both the fans and his fellow tribe members. Week after week, his name is thrown around as a potential target and if he hadn’t won immunity in Episode 9, he may have easily gone home. Despite his insulated alliance with three former Tuku members, he’s too visible of a threat to make it to the end. However, if he does get to the Final Three, he has a decent chance of winning the pot.

6th: Sue Smey

Sue was high on fans’ winner rankings for much of the early game, but after the merge, Sue seems to be less and less relevant. Rarely do we hear who Sue wants to take out of the game from an “edgic” perspective, and her strategy seems to be to just ride the coattails of whatever Gabe wants to do. In Episode 9, when Genevieve approaches Sue with a plan, Sue defers to Gabe instead of just making it happen herself. And even with this strategy, other players are recognizing how insulated she is, beginning to target her. However, if Sue gets to the end, she could be the oldest woman to win Survivor and we know Survivor players love to make history! So we’re not counting her out.

5th: Andy Rueda

Andy’s character arc throughout Survivor 47 is easily one of the most intriguing, which is probably why he gets a lot of attention in the final edits of each episode. However, his strategic capital is rising steadily, and through his perspective, we’ve learned how he has made each and every move. Similar to Season 43 winner Gabler, Andy is hiding in plain sight — he began the season as a kooky character, but has used that to endear himself to other players and seem less like a threat while targeting exactly who he wants out of the game. However, he has burned bridges with former allies and is playing a bit like a villain, forgetting about the jury management needed to win. Depending on who’s on the jury and how much sway Sierra has over her fellow jury members, Andy’s win equity could go either way.

4th: Sam Phalen

At this point of the game, many might think Sam has no chance of winning since he seems to be squarely on the bottom as Tuku and Lavo have worked together to pick off Gata’s most charismatic players. Sam is a visible threat — he’s good at challenges, he’s strategic, and everyone seems to like him, so there’s clearly a target on his back. However, after his number one ally was voted out, Sam was able to reingratiate himself into the tribe to earn back trust and play from the bottom. He’s ready to stir up chaos if necessary and win his way to the end. If he can do that, he has a pretty high chance of winning the game with “Mayor of Ponderosa” Sierra vouching for him, clear moves under his belt, and most importantly, an underdog story.

3rd Most Likely: Rachel LaMont

Another former Gata member, Rachel is making a name for herself as a sneaky threat. While we haven’t seen any major moves from her yet, her social capital has kept her in the game even when the former Tuku tribe tried to target her. Now that Rachel has an idol in her pocket, she has the power to make whatever move she wants to strike at exactly the right time, as long as she can stay in the game long enough to get to that point. If Rachel makes the right read to make the right move, she could easily win at the Final Three. But will she get that opportunity?

2nd Most Likely: Caroline Vidmar

The world of Survivor fans is high on Caroline, and it makes sense considering her current threat level versus her level of sway in the game. From the very beginning, Caroline has voiced her strategic decisions about who she’s aligning with and why. Like Sue, Caroline is extremely insulated in her alliance; however, no one has clocked Caroline as a threat. Additionally, everyone seems to want to work with Caroline, who has built cross-tribal relationships while maintaining a stronghold with her original Tuku tribe. If Caroline gets to the end and can dictate her every move, she has a high chance of winning the game.

Most Likely Winner: Genevieve Mushaluk

In the beginning of the season, Genevieve was given what fans call a “purple” edit, alluding to former player “Purple Kelly,” who had very little screen time during her season despite being in the majority alliance. However, by Episode 4, Genevieve was popping off our screens! Not only is she a sneaky strategic mastermind, but she plays with both her head and her heart while instilling a bit of chaos into the game. Genevieve likes to be in control of the vote and has found a way to sway the merged tribe in her direction for multiple votes; but the question of if those moves are the right ones for her game remains. If they are, and if she gets to the Final Three without being seen as a threat, she has a high chance of winning it all. So we’ll just have to wait and see how it all shakes out.