This 11-Year-Old Prediction About The Movie Industry Is Coming True… And We Should Be Worried

I have come to expect certain things during my time on this Earth. One of those things is that a self-contained story should have conflict, dynamic characters, and a plot. Blame that on my 6th grade English teacher or the fact that every movie I’ve ever seen has contained these elements. Well, every movie except for Deadpool & Wolverine.

I do not believe that Deadpool & Wolverine is a good movie. Funny? Sporadically. Homosexual? Intermittently. But good in the sense that it tells a transporting, structured story containing identifiable arcs and hard-earned moments of joy? No. It’s not even a movie in that sense. Deadpool & Wolverine is a cynical cash grab. The worst part is that it’s going to negatively impact the film industry for years to come. Steven Spielberg and George Lucas already predicted this eleven years ago.

But before I get into that, let me dunk on Deadpool & Wolverine some more. I’m feeling salty and I haven’t had any coffee today. Just look at the title. No pithiness or style. It simply relies on the proximity of these two profitable names to get you into a movie theater. Indeed, the movie’s director, Shawn Levy, relies on little more than that to keep you hooked throughout the movie. Beyond that, he just lets Ryan Reynolds improvise unchecked while shoehorning in every possible element that might appeal to Marvel fans. Violence? Check. CGI fights involving superpowers? Check. Obscure lore, beloved character cameos, and references to outdated Internet memes? Check, check, and check. The movie is nothing but an endless parade of these instances of fan service, linked by gossamer-thin threads of story that dissolve under the faintest bit of scrutiny. Ultimately, the movie is just an overlong attempt at evoking short bursts of joy with minimal effort. On top of that, Ryan Reynolds isn’t quite as funny as he thinks he is. He’s witty, but his joke success rate hovers at 25%. He should edit that other 75%. There’s no harm in not trying to be funny all the time. Just let it happen! 

Anyway, the real cynicism of this movie lies in its masterminds’ collective assumption that all of this is enough. They really believe that a complete lack of artfulness or storytelling is forgivable as long as you can see your favorite comic book characters fight and tell increasingly meta jokes for two hours. It’s the sort of cynicism that will lead to Marvel greenlighting three movies just like Deadpool & Wolverine.

For evidence supporting my theory, let’s consider this now infamous interview that legendary directors Steven Spielberg and George Lucas gave at USC in 2013. They correctly predicted many immediate developments that would rock the movie industry. Chiefly, they believed that studios would become more cautious and less adventurous in their storytelling, valuing profitable IP over novel concepts. Well, that’s already happening. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has built a fortune off of its nearly two-decade-old storytelling formula, and few studios are producing anything but sequels or spin offs these days.

Their next prediction was: “There’s going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even half a dozen of these mega-budgeted movies are going to go crashing into the ground.” This has happened, too! MCU’s The Eternals lost $52.6 million against its $236 million budget in 2021. This was followed by Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (at least $38 million lost against a $276 million budget), The Flash ($155 million lost; $200 million budget), Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny ($143 million lost; $300 million budget), and The Marvels ($237 lost; $270 million budget).

In fact, the predicted after-effects of that “implosion” are also coming true. In 2013, Lucas and Spielberg claimed that such box office bombs would lead to studios shunning their more adventurous movies to streaming, or never releasing them all. And oh, look: In 2022, DC canceled the release of the Black woman-starring Batgirl in favor of promoting 2023’s The Flash, which starred a convicted criminal and known groomer of pre-teens. Let’s see, what else … OK, Lucas and Spielberg also claimed that the declining number of successful movies in theaters would lead to the price of movies going up. And what do you know: An average movie night for a family of four costs at least $100 these days. But that’s not all: The two filmmakers also prophesied that the worldwide number of movie theaters would eventually plummet due to all of these factors coalescing. And yep: The number of cinemas in the U.S. fell by 1% from 2020 to 2022, and by 6% from 2022 to 2023. Chalk it up to increased home viewing after the pandemic, digital streaming, and actor strike-related delays, but studios are playing their part as well. With Netflix’s new “live experience”-focused luxury movie theaters opening up in Dallas and Pennsylvania in 2025, other studios might follow suit and cause movie nights to become even more like expensive amusement park trips.

And yet, we still haven’t reached full “implosion.” There are still independent studios – and even major studios – releasing crowd-pleasing films with novel concepts. Better yet, some people are even seeing these movies. Longlegs, an independently produced serial killer horror thriller, remains one of the surprise hits of 2024. Meanwhile, Challengers, a tennis polyamory drama, has pulled a higher box office gross than the superhero movie Madame Web. However, none of these successes change the fact that studios are overwhelmingly relying on sequels, reboots, and spin offs to keep their wealthy studio heads in superyachts. Besides Deadpool & Wolverine, the year’s top hits include Inside Out 2 (a sequel), Despicable Me 4 (a sequel), and Twisters (a sequel-reboot). What’s really distressing, though, is that box office numbers are overall lower than in 2023, which means that studios will simply double down on these redundant offerings. That means that movies may begin to resemble Deadpool & Wolverine more and more, sacrificing actual stories for quick gratification and meme-able moments – anything to create Internet chatter. But at what point will people get tired of this and realize, as Spielberg and Lucas predicted, that better entertainment is available at home, on their computers and phones?

Hopefully before Deadpool & Wolverine 2.